The war in the Middle East has begun. It has not been long since it started, but there are four points that will make it clear where this war will go.
The first point; Israel and the United States are saying that they have started this war for pre-emptive strike, which is a lie. For the United States and Israel, this is a war of choice and aggression. And the American aggression can be estimated from the fact that in the first 12 hours it carried out 900 air strikes on Iran and as a result, the Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, was martyred. But despite his martyrdom, the reaction of the Iranian leadership was immediate. And the reason for this is that they have learned many lessons in the 12-day war of June 2025. The first lesson they have learned is that if the top leadership is martyred, then institutional strengthening and decentralization of command are necessary, which they have done. And the second is that if the US and Israel attack, then this war has to be spread throughout the region, which they have done. Iran attacked American installations in the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia. And the missiles used were low level.
And when these missile attacks took place, the Iranian Foreign Minister contacted all these countries and told them that these attacks were not on them but on American installations. And immediately after that, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and closed it. And now no ships are passing through this because everyone is aware of Iran’s ability that it has not only laid naval mines in the Persian Gulf and it also has submarines acquired from North Korea which are very effective in shallow water. And its closure means that the entire world’s oil supply will be affected. The third lesson that they have learned is to keep the people together, that is why when the Supreme Leader was martyred, they did not delay in announcing it and as a result they received sympathy and support from Muslims all over the world. And processions and protests have been held or are ongoing in many countries, in which the aggression of America and Israel is being condemned.
Second point; This is the first time that the Trump administration is directly participating in a war. In the 12-day Iran-Israel war of June 2025, they participated for only one day so that Israel could end the war, because Israel was no longer able to withstand the attacks of Iranian missiles. And when a country is directly involved in a war, it sets goals and tries to achieve them, while the American goals are vague and ambiguous and to some extent are to overthrow the government there. Because the Iranians will fight because this is their war of survival, there is no such possibility. Iran is not Venezuela. They have already completed the process of command decentralization. There is also a contradiction that although this is a joint operation of the United States and Israel, the goals of both are differen
America wants regime change while Israel wants a Greater Israel and the complete elimination of Iran. Now, complete elimination is impossible without America and it is not known how long Trump will stand by because there is enough internal and external pressure on him and it may increase in the coming days. And according to my estimation, this war is not going to end tomorrow at least.
Third point; The Iranians have identified gaps in their war strategy and Russia and China have helped them fill them. There are reports that they have been given the S-400 defense system. Russia cannot do much because it is busy with its own war, while China has done more. According to reports, ten of its Y-20 cargo planes (one Y-20 plane can carry 66 tons) came to Iran at different times. From this, it can be estimated that at least 660 tons of war equipment were delivered, and most of them included missiles and drones. And it is heard that they also included a shipment of three types of game-changing missiles. These include the CM-302 anti-ship supersonic cruise missile (speed Mach 3) in addition to the DF-17 supersonic glide vehicle (speed Mach 5–7) which goes from the atmosphere to space and returns and is difficult to disable with any air defense system (the American system cannot do it, let alone the Israeli one) and the most deadly CJ-1000 supersonic missile which uses a scramjet engine (speed Mach 6). The scramjet engine means that it maintains speed when it is going and when it falls. In addition, the Chinese Beidou satellite system can also help Iran. Hopefully, China will have given them all this.
Fourth point; Iran will not give up so quickly because this is its battle for survival and they will fight. My prayers are with Iran and the Iranian people